Market Recap
On the eve of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, market sentiment remained cautious. A combination of President Trump’s executive order adjusting tariffs on Canada and Mexico and upcoming US-Ukraine peace talks eased risk aversion, prompting some profit-taking in gold, which closed down 0.28%. Meanwhile, crude oil remained volatile under pressure from US trade tariffs and OPEC+ production increases, with WTI crude closing slightly higher.
Gold Overview
On Thursday, ahead of the NFP report, market sentiment remained cautious. President Trump’s decision to adjust tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the announcement of upcoming US-Ukraine peace talks reduced risk aversion, leading to some profit-taking in gold. By the close, spot gold was down 0.28%, settling at $2,911.02 per ounce.
In another trade-related shift, the Trump administration granted a one-month tariff exemption for vehicles imported under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This move, effective until April 2, is seen as a temporary de-escalation of trade tensions.
On the geopolitical front, US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed that US and Ukrainian officials are set to meet in Saudi Arabia next week to discuss a Russia-Ukraine peace framework and preliminary ceasefire agreement.
Meanwhile, the latest US trade deficit data revealed a record-high gap for January, potentially weighing on Q1 GDP growth. This has fueled expectations for a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in May, lending some support to gold prices. Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals, noted that gold remains in a long-term uptrend despite short-term profit-taking.
Key Event: The February Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will be released today. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect 160,000 new jobs, up from 143,000 in January. The market will also focus on remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman.
Gold – Technical Analysis
Gold exhibited wide-ranging volatility throughout the session. During the Asian and European trading hours, prices briefly recovered but faced resistance at $2,926, leading to a pullback. In the US session, gold fell below $2,900, bottoming out at $2,891, before rebounding to $2,922 and settling in a choppy range. The daily candlestick closed as a small bearish candle, indicating ongoing consolidation ahead of key economic data.
Gold – Today’s Focus
- Primary strategy: Buy on dips, sell on rebounds.
- Key resistance: $2,930-$2,935
- Key support: $2,895-$2,890
Crude Oil Overview
On Thursday, crude oil remained volatile as US trade tariffs and OPEC+ production plans weighed on sentiment. By the close:
- WTI April crude futures rose 0.07% to $66.36 per barrel.
- Brent May crude futures gained 0.23% to $69.46 per barrel.
Dennis Kissler, Senior VP of Trading at BOK Financial, stated:
“OPEC+’s upcoming production increase, along with improving prospects for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and ongoing tariff uncertainty in the US, has kept oil markets volatile.”
The OPEC+ alliance confirmed its first production increase since 2022, amplifying concerns over a potential supply glut. Scott Shelton, Energy Analyst at TP ICAP, warned that demand-side risks currently outweigh supply risks, as weakening consumption remains a key challenge.
Adding to the uncertainty, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans for “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran, aiming to cut off Iranian oil exports entirely and disrupt its currency market. This news provided marginal support to oil prices.
Crude Oil – Technical Analysis
Crude oil continued its weak bearish trend, with prices failing to sustain any significant rebound. The Asian and European sessions saw a slight recovery, but resistance at $67.00 led to renewed selling pressure. By the US session, WTI crude fell below $66.00, reaching $65.50 before a modest rebound. The daily candlestick closed as a doji, reflecting uncertain momentum.
Crude Oil – Today’s Focus
- Primary strategy: Sell on rallies, buy on dips.
- Key resistance: $67.50-$68.00
- Key support: $65.20-$64.70
Risk Disclosure
Securities, Futures, CFDs and other financial products involve high risks due to the fluctuation in the value and prices of the underlying financial instruments. Due to the adverse and unpredictable market movements, large losses exceeding your initial investment could incur within a short period of time.
Please make sure you fully understand the risks of trading with the respective financial instrument before engaging in any transactions with us. You should seek independent professional advice if you do not understand the risks explained herein.
Disclaimer
This information contained in this blog is for general reference only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or an invitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. It does not consider any specific recipient’s investment objectives or financial situation. Past performance references are not reliable indicators of future performance. Doo Prime and its affiliates make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of this information and accept no liability for any losses or damages resulting from its use or from any investments made based on it.
The above information should not be used or considered as the basis for any trading decisions or as an invitation to engage in any transaction. Doo Prime does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and assumes no responsibility for any losses resulting from the use of this report. Do not rely on this report to replace your independent judgment. The market is risky, and investments should be made with caution.
